The Sentiment of Tight Supply Continues to Spread, While USD Copper Premiums Ignore the Upward SHFE/LME Price Ratio [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]

March 7, 2025: Today's warehouse warrant prices were $45-55/mt, QP March, with an average price up $11/mt compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices were $62-90/mt, QP April, with an average price up $5/mt compared to the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $8-20/mt, QP March, with an average price up $8/mt compared to the previous trading day, with quotations referencing cargo arrivals in mid-to-late March.

During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio for the SHFE copper 2503 contract was around -1,350 yuan/mt, LME copper 3M-Mar was B$25.77/mt, LME copper 3M-Apr was B$18.4/mt, and the spread between March and April dates was around Back $7.37/mt. During the day, both EQ B/L and warehouse warrant offers rose significantly, while the market heard of limited transactions for standard pyro copper. Some traders remained cautious about the rising premiums and refrained from selling their inventory. Overall, market activity cooled compared to the previous day, but sentiment regarding tight supply in the longer term continued to spread.

Currently, the actual transaction price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants is $55/mt, mainstream pyro copper is $50/mt, and wet-process copper is $45/mt; high-quality copper B/L is $90/mt, mainstream pyro copper is around $76/mt, and wet-process copper is $62/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper is $8-20/mt, with an average price of $14/mt.